“When you are eager for a project to work, you are more inclined to be overconfident…” (Plous 1933)

Risk is thought of as the possibility of something going wrong and the cost if it does. If you put it into an equation, the equation would look like this:

RISK = PROBABILITY OF OUTCOME x COST

You like to think that things will go well and we will meet the best-case scenario and reap maximum benefit, you like to think that the probability of something going wrong is less than .01, so you put a low likelihood on that event.

So you get: Bad Outcome = .01 (1%) / Good Outcome = .99 (99%)

This is what ‘you like to think’ in an ideal world. But the world is less than ideal.

- It’s that Simple – or is it?

You will already be over-estimating that things will go right due to the ‘overconfidence principle’. Because your expectation is optimistic you don’t see the true risk you take.

You are also typically overconfident about your returns too…

To endure risk is low, you typically use, ‘the best of breed technology’. This is usually at high initial outlay, but you expect a high return on investment, so that’s OK. – or is it?

An Example of Risk

Say you invest £500,000 on a technical specification for the project. The tech is brilliant and does way more than you need, but that extra tech you don’t need but have it ‘just in case’ costs you. So you have already spent probably an extra 20% on tech you simply did not need. Even though you don’t realise it, speculating funds on something that is superfluous – is risk. Likely returns on this cost are zero.

You have now invested £500,000 on a project where your expected return exceeds £2,000,000 so you feel confident that this is money well spent. You have a high expectation of good returns, but you ‘know’ you will have a payback of ‘at least’  £80,000 – which covers costs and gives you a little more besides. With good marketing, press coverage etc your outlay will reap your anticipated higher returns too.

Using the above equation, the less than the covering costs scenario is not even given much consideration.

So here is a chart of your prediction:

• £200,000 success                       50% probability
• £80,000 moderate                     49% probability
• £-50,000 failure                            1% probability

Looks good doesn’t it?

Let’s Go Topsy-Turvy

What if, we turn this equation on its head?

Instead of looking at risk as an effort of ensuring high probability of success, we look at risk as an exercise of reducing cost?

COST = PROBABILITY OF OUTCOME x RISK

What we are saying is, “OK, you know what you want – eventually – but instead of listening to all the hype of what these great solution can do (for you and your competitors equally), you focus on the actual cost of the solution (in monetary terms as well as labour, time and other factors) and decide, instead of going for the ‘best solution’ (reducing the risk by raising the probability of things going well), you go for the best-fit and least costly solution before committing to a huge expense.”

As an example, a camera or phone. You get lots of functionality on your equipment these days, but you don’t typically use it all. Lower cost cameras will do the job you need perfectly adequately. Typically you don’t use all the filters – some look so awful we would ‘never’ use them, even though you have paid for them ‘ as a package’. Do you see where I am going now?

The same goes for high-ticket solutions to a problem, much of what is paid for is ‘insurance money’ when you could have gone for a lower cost solution that would have done the job adequately.

Recalculating and Rethinking

Now back to the initial (more realistic) scenario – you thought that the project had a risk of .01 – yet it is still a risk and factoring overconfidence into the equation would make the ‘failure’ option a lot more likely. In fact it is well documented that, certainly in IT, 30% of projects fail – so take that .01 and move it up to .3. Why put a he investment into something that has 30% chance of failing? Not only that, you lose the 50,000 overinvestment you initially put into the project that you didn’t need to.

Standish reports that only 9% of projects are actually successful, therefore this equation looks like this instead:

• £200,000 success                      9% probability
• £80,000 moderate                   61% probability
• -£50,000 failure                       30% probability

This is a very different scenario than you looked at initially, but more realistic and less over confident.

“When you are eager for a project to work, you are more inclined to be overconfident, yet oddly enough overconfidence decreases as knowledge increases, we become less sure as we get better at something.” (Plous 1933)

This is why it is important to always look at a best-fit solution (usually a hybrid), to minimise risk by reducing the cost of a project. Bearing in mind the likelihood of failure. It is also wise to limit initial outlay.

New technology is prey to overconfidence. The more proven a technology is, the more we can rely on the probability of it working because we have sorted out the teething problems and have experience in that technology so can use a best-of-breed solution.

With new technology, don’t overlook the ‘little guy’ – he may just be the market leader of the future!

As we emerge from the industrial age, we are amazed by what we see as the information age. Immediate access to information has become paramount to the knowledge worker and consumer alike. The impact which the Internet/Intranet  and all its social manifestations and affectations are having on the working environment cannot be overstated.

The effect that the Internet has on the populous is only too evident. Perhaps the web of neural connectivity is one of the reasons the phrase ‘networking’ is used in business to mean communicating with one another.  The sheer breadth of information which the ‘net’ encompasses makes it a phenomenal information source for the user and this information is an appropriate tool at any level, provided the user has the technology and ability to utilise it.

However, all too often it is the very knowledge that is not readily accessible or deliberately withheld that is the most useful.  A minimum level of system understanding is required to navigate any network, which automatically excludes non computer literate individuals.  Access to valuable information is also restricted by financial and political barriers, preventing those who have not paid the required fee or who have the necessary influence, from obtaining the crucial information needed to make a value judgement and subsequent decision or purchase.

Political restraints are held within organisations as an expression of power. Resistance to the use of the Internet and Intranet can stem from this power broking.  If correct training and sufficient access to information has taken place, the able user has by result, access to a vast array of alternative and perhaps conflicting information with which they can extrapolate and interact. Only then can achievement be gained from access to valid information.

The use of the Internet and Intranet for Cloud based interactivity is inevitable for those who wish to maintain or gain a foothold in their marketplace, whether it be local, national or global. The flow of interchangeable information via the Internet is still increasing and will offer those who are amongst the first to use this information effectively an unprecedented lead over their competitors, provided they have trained their staff to use the system effectively and enthusiastically. The impact of the World Wide Web network on the method of communication within an organisation has in the past depended greatly upon the company using the system.

As the emphasis is placed on an ‘information’ workforce, they become increasingly computer literate and need access to external (qualified) information sources.  As the use of global networks, particularly social media and workgroups rise, companies are able to put together people from different areas of excellence and expertise and obtain a more complete picture of the dynamics of their company as well as to drive it purposefully in near-real time.

The pace of commerce will increase as contact between customer and supplier becomes instantaneous.  With the Cloud, established customers can view products proffered on the screen, in sound, colour and action as never before.  The conversion from ‘Snail’ to E-mail has become the norm, online work teams and customer interaction is only a matter of time and acceptance too.

E-mail for Change

One of the most significant things to have come out of the use of Internet and Intranet is the upsurge of electronic mail and the abandonment of letter mail in preference to it.  Many companies now use e-mail as a primary method of communication.  This carries across cultures successfully meaning a thought can occur in New York, be conveyed and communicated to a thousand people in Japan and acted upon in only a matter of minutes, far faster than older traditional methods such as telephone and fax. Cloud is a next step in the chain of change.

Cloud Means Change

Traditionalism is the enemy of change.  People cling to tried and tested methods unless they can see a big pay-off as a result.  Workers will only change either because it cuts short a hopeless situation or enormously improves an adequate one. For progress to be made, change is inevitable.  The most common problem encountered with the introduction of any new technology is the natural resistance to change, this always needs to be carefully circumnavigated to avoid direct confrontation. Resistance to change is built into human nature, to overcome it is a major factor in the development of business.

Workers like to be ‘secure’ and ‘safe’. The introduction of Cloud computing makes change in working practice inevitable.  The solution is to make these changes quickly and expediently.  Many organisations’ IT departments still have lock-down on external Internet connection, in fear that the workers will abuse it and do not work – or use illegal sites online.  The firewall is a double edged sword. You cannot peer over the wall to see the Cloud, so your vision is obscured. Cloud facilities such as social media and virtual worlds are usually curtailed for all but the Marketing Department.

It is fortunate that most individuals are initially keen to try out this well hyped method of communication, because it is both revolutionary and evolutionary.  They may only wish to send a photo of the office to a colleague in the United States or urgently need to send a technical alteration for a prototype to the Asian manufacturing department in Hong Kong. Wherever they can, they will mount the firewall.  Curiously this constraint is less tight in smaller organisations.

For users to be able to benefit the organisation through information, ease of use is essential.  It is important that barriers are not created, putting knowledge workers off, making it difficult for them to use the Cloud as an information source and receptacle.  This depends exclusively upon the approach taken with the introduction of the ‘net to the workforce.  As always situation management is essential. Motivation is a crucial element.

A Word On Motivation

Effort and performance              (E-P)
Performance and Rewards        (P-R)
Rewards and Needs                 (R-N)

The model below shows that normally an individual perceives these relationships as on a balance, motivation is the result of a change in the balance of these factors:

If an individual believes that a small amount of effort will result in a large increase in performance, they are likely to be motivated.  Therefore if the effort to change to the Intranet or Internet is perceived to be small and the reward gained from the increase in performance great then their motivation will be good.

Effort must be perceived to be smaller than performance attained to ensure that motivation is good.  When a large level of effort, or change, appears to exceed a small increase in performance then demotivation takes place.  Correct and coherent training can increase motivation.

Training

Training is essential to ensure that correct procedures are followed and adhered to.  Standards to the use of information should be pre-defined to give the knowledge workers security and confidence in their own abilities.  A little time spent at this juncture will prevent a great deal of time wasted later on sorting out the mess.  The larger the access to information, the greater restraint is needed to ensure that information is processed correctly.  The following guide is an appropriate method of establishing training needs and offering guidance to knowledge workers who use the new resource.

To gain confidence and respect for the use of the Cloud amongst workers, the three C’s offer an answer.

• Consult the workers.  Give them information,  ask for their suggestions, and training requirements
• Coerce.  Drive them by accepting their ideas in some way, no matter how small, ensure motivation
• Co-operate – coherence of ideas between peers to achieve agreement to working practice

Training is usually the major intangible requirement and has the main resistance, particularly from senior and middle managers.  The former adopt an attitude that they do not have time to use the Cloud, the latter that they do not need it.  The reality is that training could expose a perceived weakness, identifying an area which they do not completely understand.  Unfortunately, this attitude tends to permeate down the tiers of hierarchy.  If those at the top of the organisation appear to embrace the Cloud, others further down will do so.  This is regardless of the organisational culture and the management style of the corporation.

It is important for those at the top to be amongst the first to understand what it can offer, whether they will have future use of it themselves or not.  A little time spent at a seminar will doubtless save a great deal of time later on and give an appreciation of the expansion of business offered by this technology.  Not to mention the appreciation of importance that will be attached to it by the workforce.

Politics

For many managers and executives today, it is difficult to see the impact that the introduction of a global information infrastructure will make on their business.  Those who do appreciate the dynamics of business will understand that the incorporation of Cloud technologies into their overall business strategy is necessary to ensure corporate survival within the global community.

There is a strong tendency today to control, block or slow down the rapid pace of access to information, countries such as Russia and Eastern Europe are still hungry to gain access to the system and transfer to themselves information that has long been withheld from them.  This situation is mirrored internally within organisations.  Those who have access to information see it as their right to withhold this information from their subordinates.

Whilst technical knowhow is used as a tool by those with privileged knowledge, politics plays a great part in the introduction of any new technology.  Those who are threatened with the greatest change in working practice will be most likely to whip up a fervour of reasons against the introduction of the Cloud. It is they who require assurances to avoid conflict and confrontation.

Organisation

Tier systems in hierarchical organisations are likely to be broken down. Some tiers may disappear completely by natural selection and redundancy of roles.  Consolidation of information will not require manual collation as records held centrally can be accessed by many.  The level of intelligence and autonomy of the operatives will have to be higher if they are able and authorised to make decisions.  Although managers have ultimate responsibility, direct access and interaction of information means that workers will need greater flexibility in decision making.  The role of the supervisor, who traditionally collated information and made decisions regarding circulation of information, changes into an advisory and training position.  When the information is centrally located and disseminated to appropriate recipients, regardless of their location automatically, managers will become the central figure in the control of information circulation.

With Cloud, team building will be a force in the future. As individuals from different departments and countries can be brought together to work across the Intranet.  As cross culture commerce is instigated, the skills of team building and fostering communication within the team will become important.  Team groups will be necessary to ensure that processes are being followed correctly.  Collective ‘care’ in the workplace and a greater deal of inter-changeability in roles will become the norm, thus reducing disempowerment problems arising from supervisory loss of role.  The emphasis on the measure of work quality will move from leadership ability to skills as a team player.

The Cloud as a tool in working practice, is versatile, dynamic and empowering.  The Cloud is a viable option for most organisations.  It offers greater data security from the possibility of industrial espionage and data loss than paper systems.  It also offers instantaneous, easy, and convenient access for internal knowledge workers who need to consult information simultaneously from different locations. One thing to consider is the Cloud ownership – should this be done in-house or outsourced?

Accessibility

The Cloud can be accessed from any point on the globe and beyond, provided the user has the appropriate tool.  This may revolutionise working practice as we know it, changing the way work is viewed.  Schools and colleges in the United Kingdom are getting familiar with Cloud as students look towards self directed study from home – which could be anywhere in the world.  The continuance of this practice into industry means that knowledge centres and work teams can be located disparately anywhere.  Local offices in some companies are becoming a thing of the past, with perhaps only headquarters being in physical existence.  Employees scattered throughout the world can be deployed immediately to the appropriate task using the telecommunication network and Cloud.  The accessibility of the Internet has lead to a current rise in the number of self motivated homeworkers, commonly in knowledge based industries.  Usually based at home, they spend time with their families and work during their most productive hours.  Payment is heavily influenced by results and deadlines rather than physical presence. They are an effective group of workers and may lead the way to Cloud  usage and profound changes in working practice.  They also save themselves the stress of driving to work and the effect it has on our environment.

The Green Factor

The current trend amongst business in the western culture is to be seen to be green.  This is an unavoidable issue when contemplating change and addressing any business issue.  If ever an argument were tailor made to support the use of the Cloud it would be this one.  Use of paper is reduced, lowering cost to the organisation and saving forestation.  With information being centrally located and accessible through the Cloud, wherever one is in the world, transport costs and fossil fuels are not required to transport information between countries and continents.  Culturally, this is a most acceptable form of information processing.

Structures

The speed of response is the most important issue affecting the Cloud.  It is increasingly crucial to business to have an instantaneous response.  Organisation of information in a useable format is vital if the business is to survive. This is true in the use of the Cloud and the internal access structure of the company.   Structures have to be established and access to information has to be given or withheld to those individuals within it.  Power bases are likely to be built on who has access to what information on the system.  If there is too much restriction to information, alienation can be felt by those who perceive that they ought to have privilege to certain information.  This issue is a political one and access to information should be agreed during training and in appraisal situations.

Conclusion

Provided that introductions are handled well by those at CEO and EO levels, the implementation of Cloud computing will prove to be invaluable tools.  It is important to ensure that the system is integrated and embraced by the entire structural fabric of the organisation.  Involvement in the introduction of the system at higher levels should demonstrate the importance of the progression to others lower in the hierarchy and assist to provide them with guidance and motivation.   Training is an issue that cannot be avoided.  One of the most expedient form of which is work based training, where experience of the real system can be gained in situ.

Team building often takes place at the same time and this serves to enforce the working ethos.  Any type of changeover between systems always takes time and problems emerge which will require straightening out.  Internal political issues must be addressed, with access to information agreed rather than dictated.  Informational infrastructures will become apparent, needing to become formally recognised and regularly maintained.  For a relatively tranquil transition, the issues highlighted herein should all ideally be addressed before the implementation of a Cloud solution, although it is never too late.

Fat Pig goes to market...

Unfortunately for current western society, present consumption and expansion is an impossible dream. There has to be an adjustment. So far, by manipulation of many factors, the power possessing individuals have been able to keep most plates spinning, albeit irregularly. It is, as you realise, an attempt to provide an acceptable panacea. Yet, as with all plasters applied before washing out the wound, the wound itself only festers.

People want an earthquake to occur but few want to deal with the shock or subsequent aftershocks…it’s the magic bullet syndrome our society seems to seek as the only acceptable solution. It always has to be painless as possible and will never be effective. Because the would is sealed with the dirt still inside.

Perhaps societies that have missed so called progress and most innovations, who still feed the family on farm vegetables, the chickens and the fattened pig are better off after all? – In the ensuing earthquake, it is likely that they are the only ones that will be relatively unaffected. I say ‘relatively’.

The current situation is simply based on pyramid selling. One day the bottom of the pyramid will be reacted, resourced gone and the whole thing will collapse.

Our modern prophets (we call them economists and futurists) have been warning us for many years about the collapse of the system of capitalism that we cherish. I am not a card-carrying socialist yet realise that one major event is all it takes to bring the whole sack down.

However, wouldn’t it be nice if we hearkened to our heralds. For people, organisations and nations to change their ways instead to a more sustainable model? I stand in hope of the hopeless.

Can the world change to a more sustainable order and if so – to what?

Then they became more sophisticated and you had levels as with PacMan. From that, other games developed where you immersed a character into a world and played with and against the pixelated creations of the machine.

As technology improved, you played with your friends, like you did on PlayStation. Now things are entering another realm, the online realm. Here people from all over the world can band together against a common enemy as with World Of Warcraft, or build a world together, as with Second Life.

Interactive games are now known by children to be one way a computer is used. No longer do they want to be alone, they want their friends to join them – from all over the world.

Adults are playing these games too and are now creating their own environments and sharing them. Many examples of open worlds are being created, yet few will survive.

Now further on in the timeline, the giants are entering the games. Against Goliath, David doesn’t really have much hope. Today I read that one of these giants is EA Games, who are entering the world of ‘mindcrafting’, that is games that you make yourself.

Mindcrafting is used in Second Life already. This is a world that people make themselves, it isn’t regarded as a game and nor do EA want theirs to be. To them, it is a software toy, not a ‘game’ (tell me the difference please?). They claim that people don’t enjoy frustrating puzzles to keep players involved and that they want linear and story based experiences.  They have discovered that people want to “be that character’ and make their own story and have decided to put this creativity into the hands of the players. This is less for games developers to do, and more for users to imagine and create.

A new economic development shift is occurring here, as with television’s trend towards user created content, such as news items being sent in by the public. No longer will the games developer tell you what to play, you will tell them what you want to play instead. More evidence of the trend towards collaboration between individuals rather than control by corporations.

However, this form of collaboration in the virtual world sense has already been explored and studied in Second Life, the longest and most enduring virtual world ‘game’ platform. Here we see networks of communities developing and growing as people join with similar interests and add ‘their’ story to the matrix.

Such a community is Virtually Linked’s ‘London’ inside Second Life, where over 40,000 active users collaborate and make their own stories. Many other communities, such as Caledon, based on the Steampunk concept are there too. Will these communities and new ones adopt the games platform EA Games are suggesting? Who knows?

So, it has come full-circle. People are playing with other people, creating their own games and social environments, but with the use of the machine. The machine has become an interactivity tool. Not a passive opponent or friend, it is now the middleman, not the end game. Virtual worlds have been taken up by games creators and the machine is no longer our friend, but merely a collaboration and interaction tool for people to communicate with other people, wherever they are geographically located.

Is this 'mindcrafting'? To create and enjoy a virtual fireworks display together

This post was prompted by an approach from a new user in the orientation area. He was around 6 minutes old and a brand new user . Let us call him Mike.

Mike ran up to me in this virtual world and immediately intruded on my private space, now that was OK, because I have been around a bit and know this is the behaviour of many new users. He was obviously used to ‘games’ because he managed to start up a conversation in Instant Message (private chat window) with me.

He said ‘Hello baby’… so I thought to myself – righty oh … here we go, another sexual predator to fend off and get rid of. So I responded with a ‘hi’. He was persistent and asked what there was to do in this game, so I told him it is a game of your own making that you can immerse yourself into any adventure you choose to. He wasn’t interested in all that and wanted to be my ‘friend’ instead, so I accepted his ‘friendship’.

He asked me to be his girlfriend (fast mover this one). I told him I wasn’t interested in a virtual romance and that I was old, fat and ugly – when this didn’t work I told him I was also married, thinking this to be the ‘piece de resistance’. This still did not deter him, but he changed tack slightly. He told me he wanted to find a girlfriend and had been told that he could do so in Second Life.

Of course being the usual female sucker for a guy in distress, I decided I could help him (I know, I know – you’re thinking ‘idiot’ – you fell for that old ploy). So I showed him part of the London Sims where he would meet people who are what I would call ‘relatively safe’.

The London Gateway is a place where newcomers are ‘born’ and where there is a team of helpers who are there to make their learning experience easier. When we arrived, he saw all these new females (I did tell you my avatar is female?) and as a friend I advised him to start a chat with one of them. I leave this story here because this is where I exited, after introducing him to a female I knew was kind and helpful.

However, the real reason I am relating this story is as an acknowledgement that people do join Second Life looking for a relationship. Yet is that a bad thing?

Many young people (and not so young) look to these places for an alternative way to tackle issues they have in their lives.

As in my example, young people, learning how to deal with the opposite sex (and same sex) in relationships, both with different agendas, can learn how to negotiate these relationships with relative safety (unless they invite the other person right over to their place in the real world, and let’s face it, that’s rather a stupid thing to do).

More mature people, or those that have so far succeeded at navigating the pitted road called ‘relationship’ come up with a crisis at some point and seek a mechanic or alternative vehicle with better upholstery to tide us over, or even to transfer to.

Second Life is one place that there is a vehicle for these situations. Although it has been accused of causing them, it appears to be more of a victim of the symptoms that people have in their lives and of existing issues, rather than a direct cause of problems.

Over the years of using virtual worlds, I have found that some things people come to virtual worlds for when they are looking for a relationship are:

- To run away from circumstances in which they feel there is no escape, such as a disability or a situation in which they are a carer
- Mundane circumstances they would rather leave temporarily and have a small part of themselves in a fantasy world, such as low income and no employment
- To explore their sexuality and if they have never had a sexual partner, explore dealing with relationships in a relatively safe environment
- To have sex, such as people who are in a tired sexual relationship with no external outlet (apart from pornography)
- To have love and caring, those who are perhaps in a relationship where they feel the love is missing and need human compassion
- The relationship with the life partner has fallen off the rails, such as those in difficult relationships, perhaps abusive or simply absentee partner
- Finally, the first-timer, is someone who has never had a relationship, and is exploring the opportunities in a virtual world as a test for their future

So, is Second Life (and other virtual worlds – including World of Warcraft) a substitute or a searching for something missing in people’s lives and more than just recreation?

I would say that it is possible. People use virtual worlds as recreation, true. But often for one of the above reasons, they are also looking for a relationship. This is likely to be an unconscious need in them that is not openly expressed.

It is well to remember that the other person you are dealing with in these environments is not a ‘robot’ or a ‘character’ in your game, they are real people sitting behind the screen. Please always remember that because one day, you may meet them. Like you, they are looking for people in their life to add to their life and although they could possibly walk out of their front door to do this, most choose to do it virtually – of course with the exception of those who are not able bodied. Please treat one another with respect, and if you are not using virtual worlds, please remember that these people are not ‘freaks’. They are human like you.

However, there is a happy end to the story. Many people find happiness in virtual worlds like Second Life. Many ‘partner’ in the virtual world and develop close and intimate relationships in relatively short periods of time. The intensity of these relationships, can equate in a 1: 5 ratio. 1 day for every 5 in the real world, and many virtual relationships consume more attention than real relationships do. The intensity of the relationship is deep.

The result of this is that when people do come together, after knowing one another virtually, they know one another at a depth seldom (if ever) experienced in the real world. Thus many relationships formed through virtual worlds are subsequently very stable and enduring.

The message: -

For a good relationship, start it in a virtual world first.

Successful relationships start here...

They believe that just ‘being there’ is enough. It isn’t!

Engaging and awareness are important aspects of any social media, virtual worlds included. It takes time and effort to build a community and a lot of lateral thinking, as well as marketing and brand promotion. Simply having a ‘presence’ is like simply having a web site. Pretty to look at – for everyone who already knows it’s there, but without promotion – even basic promotion such as being seen by Google and other search engines – it will be invisible to the general populace.

Similarly in virtual worlds: No promotion = No traffic

Social media is a place where we have to make a BIG noise to be seen. If we keep quiet – we are invisible. Whether we are a council or a lone individual, we need to network and make contacts – as many as possible please.

Virtual worlds are even more chaotic and haphazard than the Internet or other social media. There is no organisation or common ‘search engine’ so promotion has to be done by the body that has created the presence, or those who have commissioned it.

As with all things, promotion is essential. Marketing is typically between 30%-60% of any corporation’s budget. It appears that most organisations that enter virtual worlds spend very little on this aspect of promotion.

It has to be said that similarly, within virtual worlds like Second Life, zero or minute marketing budgets are noticeable. I have to wonder how these companies think this amount of marketing will bring the critical mass of people in to virtual worlds that they need to make this market viable.

You only have to look at World of Warcraft to see how well a good marketing budget returns on itself. You don’t need the best product, you need the best marketing.

How on earth did we arrive at this question – it is preposterous. To suggest that a person can become a bunch of pixels, independent of the person at the keyboard is a non-statement. You ‘are’ that person behind the keyboard. Whatever identity you have split off from your real life and thrown into a pixelated character is more in need of therapy than any other part of your psyche.

Virtual worlds are fantasy worlds, or if recreation of reality, they are a way to explore outside of our physical constraints. This alone is a reason for transparency.

There may be reasons for you to want to hide your identity, some valid, but most not. Anonymity is seen as a way to do bad things without being caught. If it wasn’t, the death penalty in the US would be administered by one person, not an anonymous collection of test tubes.

People need to realise that there is no ‘Second Life’, it is all ‘life’ and the pixelated ‘selves’ will soon be called to account.

This is likely to occur for the most base of reasons, financial accountability. Some companies working in these worlds are registered, private individuals do not have to account for money they acquire through these means and are therefore tax-free income. Governments are usually stimulated into action when fiscal issues raise their heads. This will be the catalyst for verified identity cards on the Internet, prompted by virtual worlds.

Therefore, transparency will be forced upon us, if we do not put our hands up to be identified first. I encourage everyone to play fair and identify who you are, before there is a rush of ‘outing’.

This of course raises issues of security, bit that is a debate about just ‘how much’ information do you make public. Obviously you don’t want to share your daily ablutions.

How many new ‘friends’ are simply marketeers and cross-sellers employed to sell into the market-space instead, often selling into the same market-space as each other.  Soon we will see the market-space wars, as competitors vie for the same social group and target the same products competitively into that group. We will see new strategies evolving about how you can outsell your competitor in that space by ‘getting closer’ to your target audience and becoming even more devious.

Social Networking is not sacrosanct and some marketers display no integrity at all. People cannot discriminate between genuine social exchange and the opportunists that are selling blithely at them. The corporation and individual, that sells in this manner, will be perceived as being a nuisance. However before it is picked up and identified, its message may have reached many thousands of potential customers.

Forget the social networking courses and presentations that cost thousands of $$$, you have it all here in a list. These are the rules to social engagement for commercial gain.

The rules are:

1. Contribute – to the social media discussion. Make sure what you say is relevant, and appropriate.
2. Help – discussions along. If you are interested in them or they can be directed towards your organizations’ interests, more comments the better as you are usually allowed to comment freely. People like to get close to others they know more about, so the more you open up, the better people will like it and want to be your own personal ‘friend’.
3. Engage – with others. Educate them, engage them in dialogue, or simply flatter them.
4. Establish – relationships. Very important to be seen as credible in social media. This way, when you mention your brand, they will believe you.
5. Personalities – learn them and use them to your advantage, get closer to influencers by agreeing with their viewpoint. Select groups that you know something about, that your own personality and knowledge will shine through.
6. Sensitivity to others. Watch how others post. See what they are looking for from you. Positive feedback, reinforcement, agreement with their viewpoint? Supply it.
7. Help – others. When people appear to be at a loss in the discussion or maybe are losing the argument, support them – they will see you as a good guy and want to help you spread your own messages around.
8. Interest – show lots of interest in what other people are doing, they will be very flattered and willing to introduce you to other ‘friends’ who they think will like you too.
9. Time for action. Once you have softened your target audience and they are trusting, they will be likely to spread your messages broadly. This could be the time to go in for the kill. Use it – hard and fast.

Even though there is a popular use of social networks evolving, few of these are actually making money. Most are free – such as Facebook. When organisations try to invoke a monetisation program – such as Ning – people simply go elsewhere. Where does that leave us?

It leaves us with no social networks! If people are not willing to pay for their social provision, the provision will simply dissappear. Do we pay for phones – yes. Do we pay for other services, yes. SO why is it so contraversial when we are asked to pay for socialising – after all we pay when we go to a club or pub or any other social grouping – so why not online socialisation.

We do not pay because we do not have to, the competition out there is so fierce that we can cherry pick.

What is the solution? A point will come when the self funded networks will die and you will be left with those that carry advertising or are subscription based – remember AOL?

This is the future. Non commercial social Networking – R.I.P. Advertising is the future of the non-fee paying realm, as with other media such as TV and radio advertisements.

Corporate Social Networks however will continue to thrive. As there is a corporate goal and an end game to them, in collective knowledge assimilation, the corporation has a vested interest in making sure the users ‘play’. What we are seeing on Facebook and the likes now, such as ‘incentives’ and ‘points’ for collaboration, we will see repeated inside the corporation.

Social networks will not evolve as a random group of ‘friends’ new and old, connecting and commenting on each others’ activities. Its future will need to be governed and have compliance applied to it. There will be a need to be accountable for all social interaction, as there is in the workplace and high street.

The ‘Wild West’ has nearly gone, being replaced with highways covered in tarmac and grit, with protective kerbs either side of the channel and cameras every few kilometers.

Good advice is to now prepare now for this future, and manage current behaviour with this expectation.

Virtual world are another ‘new’ platform. A toy for programmers to play with and a confusing array of ideas and possibilities that takes up far too much practical time for managers to look at. Virtual Worlds can be a solution looking for a problem.

So Why Do We Even Consider Them?

These platforms may be the frontier to gaining a new strategic advantage. Just as Google and Facebook hit upon the magic formula for social networks in an evolving market (which is still fiercely contested), Virtual Worlds are arrays of possible solutions looking for problems to solve.

Some have tried to find that problem. American Apparel tried to sell virtual versions of their clothes into virtual worlds, Nike introduces a ‘do-it-yourself’ design your own trainers as a prototype to the real world equivalent, Sears and others used virtual worlds as promotional tools – to catch first breath of newsworthiness in the marketing arena. Even the Daily Mail decided to replicate their real world headquarters in Kensington, inside a Virtual World recreation of London.  Scenario modelling, crowd control and architectural layouts are also prime examples of the use of Virtual Worlds.

Then  ‘Why’ Have These Examples Not Been Sustained Or Copied?

Most Virtual World investigation is in research, data collection and evaluation. This is still the world of the early-adopter. Mainstream business keeps well away of anything that smacks of the uncertain world of R&D, especially for business critical applications.

Risk and reward are so loosely coupled in business that they could even be considered to be inversely proportionate. Personal payoff is typically not worth professional risk in the IT department. The more risky a project it is, the smaller the reward and higher the panic factor. Small risk is usually applauded more than large return. Risk management is more an issue within the IT department than increasing the bottom line. IT staff are characteristically not rewarded for innovative IT strategies.

I Can Find ‘Case Studies’ Yet Few, If Any, ‘Success Stories’?

As IT is traditionally seen as part of business and financial management, rather than development of new business, this is not the area in which there is classically great corporate innovation. Organisations focus on product innovation within their core business, rather than to look at alternative strategies for reducing costs and increasing profits – especially when these look like ‘games’.

Uncertainty plays a part. Risk is a big issue in the form of financial, legal, marketing, production and personal risk (loss of job, demotion upon failure, CV black marks etc.). These all affect both personal and corporate strategy.

Supply and demand information is unknown when making an initial management decision on Virtual World adoption because there is no historical data to draw on.

New technology is typically another source of risk, even to the backbone of adopted platforms and established standards. To back the wrong horse can be very costly. Case Studies are often short-term ‘toe in the water’ trials with no long-term strategy and committed players to ensure there is a return on investment.

Success Stories require long-term commitment, strategy, expected quantifiable return on investment, as well as expectation and risk management. These take time and require considerable initial investment, both in time and money. What we do know is that this is a risky business.

What Technology Do I Buy Into And When?

Traditionally new projects in IT have a high failure rate. No one wants to be associated with failure. The greater the uncertainly, the higher the risk – and the more likely outcome is for project failure, particularly where there is no long term historical data to analyze for likely outcomes and points of conflict.

There is an advantage to being early on the scene. You can break away from the crowd and really make a difference to your advantage over competitors.

This technology should be applied to an existing problem looking for a better solution, not the other way around. A solution looking for a problem is akin to the tail wagging the dog. Use of this technology, as with most technological advancements, should initially be run in parallel with existing processes. That way you can evaluate the benefits and issues by comparing the new with the old.

For example, for a crowd flow scenario, use existing methods, but additionally use a Virtual World platform to perform the same task. Compare the costs, speed and ease of use. If the virtual world comes out faster, cheaper and easier you may have a winner. If not, you have only spent a proportionately small time on the project and have risked very little because the processes were also run using conventional methods.

Benefits can only be appreciated when compared to existing processes.

Selection of Virtual World technology platform should be simply to find the best-fit product for the specific task. Look for repeatability, rigor of execution requirements, accuracy in duplication of existing systems and relevance of platform to the task. Finding the best platform for the job, rather than the shiniest and glossiest package will aid success of the project. Because we are at an early phase in technological evolution, platforms will evolve to the tasks required of them. Finding the one with the best potential fit for your project will assist your success.

Manage Your Organisations’ Expectations?

High expectations can mean that even the most successful project can be thought of as a failure. Expectation management, going beneath the glossy package and the eye-candy, to demonstrate real benefit, keeps everyone happy.

As with most projects, this means drawing up schedules, spreadsheets and other paraphernalia. Having a realistic set of outcomes with achievable timelines and returns will require planning and will depend on information and timelines for other projects on similar tasks, but using traditional methods.

Risk is chancy, managing risk is essential for gaining value from new technologies. Developing projects using Virtual Worlds needs regular management if it is to be adopted into normal business practice.

Even the inspirational Google manage risk on innovative projects – here typically 4 days a week an employee works on their given project. Then one day a week on their pet project. There is no expectation that the pet project will produce anything and because of the satisfaction the employees have, most people put so much effort in the 4 days that it is worth the companies’ effort to provide the fifth day for personal projects that just ‘could’ leap Google yet another bound further ahead in the race. Safe projects known to yield benefit are securely bound. The risk is kept in another box we might call ‘Friday’, perhaps we should rename this ‘riskday’.

Conclusion

Virtual Worlds can have great value for the organisation. However traditional strategies and structures should be implemented. Ensure that you have a problem that needs a solution, not the other way around. There are unlikely to be any previous models to copy at present, so information has to be gleaned from existing models of tackling the process being replaced. Risk and expectation management are essential inclusions in an adoption strategy. Most successes are kept quiet until a strategic advantage has been achieved. Unreasonable short term expectations raised from media hype should be countered by a long term strategy that is sustainable and beneficial to the organisation.

The aim of adopting a Virtual World solution should be to reduce costs and to make the existing process faster and easier.